Algorand Price Prediction For 2030
Last Reviewed: January 2023
We don't own a magic 8-ball, let's make that clear from the beginning. Nonetheless, we'd like to crunch the numbers and make a decent Algorand Price Prediction for 2030. We'll use the best of our abilities to reason our way into 3 different answers, based on changing circumstances of the predicting factors.
Algorand Price Prediction For 2030:
- Best-case Scenario
- Worst-case Scenario
- Reasonable Scenario
Now is a great time to mention ahead of time that this isn't financial advice. All predictions are based on current open-source data. Consider that you're reading the opinion of AlgoDaddy and invest at your own risk.
CALCULATIONS ARE IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE ARTICLE
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| Image by VIN JD from Pixabay |
Predicting Factors
Let's preface our Algorand price prediction for 2030 a bit - What are we really accounting for when making our calculations? In short, three main points:
- Historical Prices (ALGO-BTC)
It's important to understand where the numbers come from before you trust any upcoming calculations and subsequent Algorand price prediction.
Historical Price Development
We're using BTC as an indication for overall crypto market growth, as it's been the driving force of price development in altcoins in the past. By comparing the historical price development of Algorand vs Bitcoin we can theoretically get a rough approximation of ALGOs future growth as well. In the best case scenario we'll account for new all-time-highs, however in the worst-case scenario we'll assume stagnated growth.
The price of bitcoin increased approximately by 2000% each time during the last two bull runs. This is our best-case-scenario. Additionally, if we compared the ALGO-BTC ratio, we'll find that ALGO consistently have been peaking at around 0.00005 BTC and at its strongest, while being around 0.00001 BTC at its lowest.
Curious How The Rich Invest In Algorand?
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| ALGO-BTC Historical Chart |
Market Cycle
The average Bitcoin market cycle, consisting of a bull and bear run, lasts on average 1,275 days. At the point of writing this article there are 2560 days until 1st of January 2030. As it turns out, 2560 / 1275 ≈ 2.009, thus we can claim that in 2030 will be in about 2 complete market cycles.
Of course, there are no guarantees that any upcoming market cycles will adhere to these averages, but we're making due with what we have. So with that in mind we'd theoretically be in another bear market in January 2030. This is not something we'll take into consideration, more than when estimating an appropriate ALGO-BTC ratio, in which we'll use the bear market numbers for the worst-case scenario and vice-versa for the best-case calculation. Also, you're not really reading this article to know what price Algorand might be in a future bear market, are you?
Inflation
In order to make a realistic price prediction for Algorand for 2030 we have to account for inflation. Between 1960 and 2021 the average inflation rate was 3.8% per year. Even though the current inflation is twice of that we'll use the above data as our reference point.
Bitcoins own inflation rate is currently around 1.7%, though it will fall towards 1.1% after the next Bitcoin halving in 2024 and then again due to further halving. We'll use the latter number for our calculations.
Hence the number we're using for our Algorand price prediction, accounting for USD vs BTC inflation, would be 3.8% - 1.1% = 2.7%.
Algorands own inflation from now until 2030 will be approximately 40%, due to their currently being 7.14 billion ALGO in circulation, which grow to 10 billion by 2030. I.e. (10-7.14)/7.14 = 0.40056 ≈ 40% loss of value.
Now, let's start calculating.
Best-case Scenario 📈
We're starting with the good news. In a best case scenario the current BTC price ($16,600) would increase 2000% x 2000% through two market cycles:
$16,600 x 20 x 20 = That's 6,64 million per BTC.
Ok, very unlikely. But let's keep moving as to not start arbitrarily coming up with numbers. Adjusted for inflation over 7 years:
$6,640,000 x 1.027^7 ≈ $8,000,000
Now let's assume ALGO-BTC is at its regular peak during a bull market:
$8,000,000 x 0.00005 = $400
Now we're accounting for the inflation of ALGO throughout the next 7 years:
$400 x (100%-40%) = $240
There it is, our the final result.
Best-case scenario Algorand price prediction 2030:
1 ALGO = $240
Worst-case Scenario 📉
In our worst-case scenario BTC isn't moving much at all in terms of price. It'll be hovering around the current numbers, but let's adjust for inflation.
$16,600 x 1.027^7 ≈ $20,000
Now let's assume ALGO-BTC is at it's all time low:
$20,000 x 0.00001 = $0.2
Accounting for Algorands own inflation:
$0.2 x (100%-40%) = $0.12
Once again a final result to our calculations, however quite different from the previous.
Worst-case scenario Algorand price prediction 2030:
1 ALGO = $0.12
Reasonable Algorand Price Prediction For 2030
The truth tends to be somewhere in between the two extremes. So what now? Do we have to arbitrarily pick numbers for our Algorand price prediction? Well not exactly, that wouldn't be a very intelligent prediction after all. The fact is that most predictions, by people smarter than AlgoDaddy, estimate that BTC could be around $100,000-150,000 per the year 2030. Let's take the average of that ($125,000) and move on with our calculation.
Let's adjust this estimate by inflation first:
$125,000 x 1.027^7 ≈ $150,000
Historically ALGO-BTC has been quite stable for longer periods of time around 0.00002, so that seems reasonable to use:
$150,000 x 0.00002 = $3
Again, adjusting for ALGOs own inflation:
$3 x (100%-40%) = $1.8
Now I'm gonna stop myself here before moving forward. I feel that we should make a small consideration here. If Algorand actually survives the next two market cycles, it will probably be doing quite well. As mentioned before, ALGO-BTC tends to peak at 0.00005 when Algorand is doing well. Therefor you could assume that it will do the same again.
With this adjustment in mind:
$150,000 x 0.00005 = $7.5
Adjusted for ALGOs inflation:
$7.5 x (100%-40%) = $4.5
As such, our reasonable scenario Algorand price prediction for 2030 gives us:
1 ALGO = $1.8 --- $4.5
Conclusion
There isn't much else to say about these predictions, more than that they are just that - predictions. There are lot's of variables that might nullify our calculations. Invest at your own risk.
The obvious should probably be mentioned - we didn't account for an Armageddon or any similar event where Algorand would be virtually worthless. After all, such a prediction doesn't need any very difficult number crushing.
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